Chad recorded a budget deficit of CFAF 33.3 billion in the first quarter of 2026, revealing a major economic paradox: despite a strong increase in tax and oil revenues to CFAF 495 billion, the government is facing an unprecedented surge in public spending, which reached CFAF 528.4 billion. While oil’s share of overall resources has declined to 24%, signaling the beginning of economic diversification, pan-African institutions such as the African Development Bank (AfDB) are sounding the alarm over the low level of investment in the social sectors of education and healthcare.
In the first quarter of 2026, Chad’s public finances showed a mixed performance, with revenues of CFAF 495 billion against expenditures of CFAF 528.4 billion. While the government succeeded in mobilizing more resources, with revenues increasing by 31.92%, it remains heavily constrained by the surge in public spending, which jumped by 45.08%. According to the report from the Ministry of Finance published on September 9, this improvement in tax revenues was not enough to keep the public accounts afloat. By the end of March, Chad had therefore slipped into deficit, recording a budget shortfall of CFAF 33.3 billion, a sharp reversal from the CFAF 11 billion surplus recorded a year earlier. This turnaround highlights what experts describe as the major paradox in public financial management.
Chad, like many African countries, is struggling to adequately finance investments, particularly in the health and education sectors and, more broadly, in the social sector. In fact, the debate surrounding these sectors is that their social returns are not assessed in terms of financial and economic profitability. And so, the Alliance takes a long-term view and concludes that these investments do not bring much benefit.
Kwami Ossadzifo Wonyra, Professor of Economics
Furthermore, while hydrocarbons continue to be a major source of government financing, with revenues increasing by CFAF 26.4 billion to reach CFAF 118.4 billion, their relative share of public resources is gradually declining. Oil revenues now account for only 24% of the overall total. This key indicator could point to a gradual diversification of the government’s sources of financing, for a country that historically depended on the sector for 60% to 70% of its resources before 2020.
We need to direct investments toward everything that is structural, everything involving infrastructure investment, which is ultimately aimed at generating growth. However, in the long term, capital itself remains the engine that creates wealth and promotes social stability. So, what concerns us in Chad today is the imperative of security, as well as the imperative to develop infrastructure.
Kwami Ossadzifo Wonyra, Professor of Economics
The crucial challenge for the authorities, therefore, is to transform this massive increase in spending into productive investments and tangible public services. However, the African Development Bank (AfDB) has pointed to the persistent weakness of social-sector budgets: Chad still allocates only 2.5% of its GDP to education and barely 0.9% to healthcare, levels that are well below regional averages.
