As the El Niño phenomenon intensifies, countries in the Greater Horn of Africa are stepping up their early warning and preparedness measures. Forecasts predict up to 400 mm of rain in several areas between October and December, raising fears of flooding, damage to crops and population displacement. Meeting in Kigali, experts are now calling for this climate data to be translated into early action to protect communities and strengthen their resilience.
Faced with a strengthening El Niño episode, the Greater Horn of Africa is seeking to prevent exceptional rainfall from turning into a humanitarian disaster. Meeting on 17 and 18 August 2026 in Kigali, Rwanda, GHACOF 74 experts forecast a wetter and warmer-than-normal October-to-December season. There is a 90% probability of above-normal rainfall in southern Ethiopia, central and southern Somalia, as well as north-eastern Kenya.
We come together today at a time of profound importance for our region. Early warning must lead to early action. Our region is one of the most climate sensitive areas in the world. It experiences a range of climate-inducing shocks, including precarious droughts, flash floods, rising temperatures, and land degradation.
Dr Abdi Fidar, Director of the IGAD Centre for Climate Prediction and Applications – Somalia
Some areas of Somalia, Kenya, the Lake Victoria Basin, Burundi, Rwanda and Tanzania could receive more than 400 mm of rainfall. The risk of flooding, damage to crops and infrastructure, and the spread of water-borne diseases is therefore increasing. In some parts of Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia, the October-to-December season accounts for up to 70% of annual rainfall, while other areas continue to face rainfall deficits and drought.
With the current climate change realities, there is a lot of work that we have to do for our communities, for our countries, so that we can build resilience to climate change. We are in a region of the planet that suffers a lot from the consequences of climate change. So as we are all here, we have to keep asking ourselves, what is our role? What are we supposed to do to make sure that we are giving everybody a chance to build a resilient livelihood, a resilient economy for our countries?
Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of the Environment, Rwanda
To prevent these risks, summit participants called for climate forecasts to be translated into concrete action before disasters strike. The recommendations include strengthening early warning systems, disseminating national and local forecasts, pre-positioning humanitarian assistance and improving preparedness for floods.
We have the forecast now. There’s a shortage of early warning actually, and we have the time to act. So we have to act now. No time to wait. Let us use the information before us to protect the livelihoods, safeguard livelihoods, and strengthen the resilience of the region.
Dr Abdi Fidar, Director of the IGAD Centre for Climate Prediction and Applications – Somalia
Early action will also need to cover agriculture, livestock, water management, health and infrastructure protection. For the 10 countries in the region, the challenge is now to improve coordination among scientists, authorities and humanitarian actors. The objective is to use climate alerts to protect populations and their livelihoods before El Niño-related rains trigger new crises.
