After estimated growth of 4.5% in 2025, sub-Saharan Africa enters 2026 facing the threat of another external shock. The war in the Middle East is disrupting energy markets, driving up transport costs, and putting macroeconomic stability under pressure. According to the International Monetary Fund, regional growth is now projected at 4.3%. This fragile recovery could have direct consequences for public finances and purchasing power.
Sub-Saharan Africa’s economic outlook is clouded by international tensions. Following growth of 4.5% in 2025, the International Monetary Fund has lowered its growth forecast to 4.3%, according to its April 2026 report. This slowdown threatens the gains made in economic stabilization and complicates development efforts across the region.
Reforms in the region, such as subsidy reform and exchange rate reform in Ethiopia and Nigeria, structural reform in South Africa, have strengthened macroeconomic stability.
Zeine Ould Zeidane, IMF African Department Director
Economic pressures across Africa are being intensified by the war in the Middle East. Rising oil and gas prices, disruptions to maritime freight, and higher fertilizer costs are driving up production and import expenses. While some hydrocarbon-exporting countries may benefit, importing countries face widening deficits, higher inflation, and growing food security risks.
Households are also feeling renewed cost of living pressures. Median inflation is projected to rise from 3.4% in 2025 to 4.3% this year and 5% next year. Fuel and transport costs are already higher, while more expensive fertilisers could put pressure on food prices and food security.
Zeine Ould Zeidane, IMF African Department Director
The region’s median inflation rate, which fell to 3.4% at the end of 2025, is expected to rise to 4.3% in 2026 and then to 5% in 2027. Currency depreciation is also increasing the cost of servicing external debt. With limited fiscal space and declining international aid, the challenge is to sustain economic growth, protect vulnerable populations, and strengthen the continent’s economic resilience.
